The expectations generated by vaccines have brought joy back to the markets. The rally experienced by the Stock Exchanges in the final stretch of 2020 has its extension in the first weeks of 2021, a behavior that has been accelerated by the rotation of portfolios from defensive stocks to those of a more cyclical cut. Although the perspectives of the main analysis houses are positive, experts remember that the road to recovery will continue to be long and tortuous.
Although the outlook is positive, the experts of the analysis firm identify up to 10 black swans that could ruin the projections, something that already happened in 2020 when the expansion of the pandemic caused the paralysis of economies, a scenario that nobody contemplated in the projections and that caused a strong shock in the markets.
- The death of Joe Biden: it would not be the first time that the US has faced such a scenario. A hypothetical death of the president-elect and future inhabitant of the White House seems far-fetched, but the recent tensions in the country could be an indication of a revolt in the world’s leading economy. If produced, the stock markets would collapse and gold, an active refuge, would skyrocket.
- That China prohibits its companies from doing business in the United States: the big technology and other consumer firms would suffer shortage problems and the stock markets would experience a great collapse.
- Greater social unrest in Africa due to hunger: a situation similar to that experienced during the Arab Spring could be repeated this year in which weather conditions cause an increase in the price of essential materials. This would lead to social unrest in the midst of a pandemic climate and with an impact on all the world’s economies, making the long-awaited recovery even more difficult.
- Doubts about the safety of vaccines: vaccines outside the regulated areas and marketed on the black market could have severe side effects in the population. The news would generate a lot of reluctance among citizens to continue injecting the vaccines approved by the regulatory bodies. This could be the germ of a new crisis and the advance of the virus.
- Let the Fed turn off the tap: of all the options on the table, this would be the most dangerous since much of the recovery experienced by Wall Street in the last 10 months has come from the hand of aid from the Federal Reserve. A change in strategy would cause the collapse of markets that are ultra-dependent on central banks and lead investors to take refuge in buying dollars.
- For other countries to follow in the footsteps of the UK and decide to leave the EU: the more populist governments of Poland and Hungary could decide to leave the EU. Its economic impact would not be comparable to that of Brexit, but it would mark the beginning of the end of the European project.
- A price war in OPEC +: the differences between OPEC members are well known. Tired of discussing the cartel countries, they could choose to compete in the market and lower crude prices, something that if it occurred would lead to the bankruptcy of private companies in the United States and Russia.
- Burst of the technology bubble: Joe Biden’s position on monopolies is known to everyone. If the Biden administration push for greater antitrust regulation this could lead to a sell-off in tech companies with FAANGs being the worst hit.
- Tesla passes its balance to bitcoins: As already suggested on Twitter, Elon Musk decides to put his company’s accounts in bitcoins. That is, he would solparse a bubble (Tesla’s) with other cryptocurrencies.
- Tensions with North Korea: after the understanding reached between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un, the arrival of Biden could lead to new tensions in which China and the United States were also involved, which could lead to a new conflict on a scale world.